Kyiv is facing criticism for its strikes on Russian oil refineries and their impact on global fuel markets. For Ukraine, however, these strikes are one of the few ways to disrupt Russia's war machine.
But there is another threat to global markets that deserves far more attention: Russia's growing campaign against Black Sea shipping and Ukraine's grain exports. By making commercial navigation increasingly dangerous, Moscow is putting international food supply chains at risk.
Suspected Russian attacks have spread towards the shores of Romania and Bulgaria, putting civilian crews and international shipping at risk.
Bulgaria warned that the Black Sea risks becoming a "dead zone" for commercial shipping. Russia claimed that vessels targeted in drone attacks were carrying weapons to Ukraine. Bulgarian Prime Minister questioned these claims, pointing out that thereis little logic in Ukraine attacking commercial ships transporting its own exports.
Romanian and Bulgarian waters should no longer be assumed safe.
The threat extends beyond the Black Sea itself: attacks on Ukraine's ports have significantly increased over the past year: Moscow has intensified attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure and agricultural cargoes.
Ambrey has reported a sharp rise in attacks on commercial vessels and port infrastructure in the Danube Delta during the second half of 2026. As Russian strikes damaged Ukraine's Black Sea ports, more shipping activity shifted to the Danube ports of Izmail, Reni and Kiliia. Attacks in the area increased 3.7 times in July--September compared with the monthly average in the first half of the year.
Just this autumn, in September, two Azerbaijani sailors were killed when a tugboat was struck by drones near Odesa, while a separate Russian drone attack on a civilian vessel heading to a Ukrainian port killed its captain and injured three crew members. On 5 October, two more sailors were killed when a grain vessel sailing from Izmail was struck near Romania's coast. Another attack sank the cargo ship Khoryv near Constanța on 23 October, killing one crew member and leaving three missing.
The Black Sea is where Ukraine's agricultural production meets the global food market. By making this route dangerous and expensive, Russia is disrupting much more than Ukrainian exports: it is putting pressure on the entire chain that connects farmers to consumers.
Alternative routes cannot fully replace the Black Sea. Danube and overland corridors are slower, more expensive and have limited capacity. Plus, as mentioned above, commercial vessels and port infrastructure in the Danube Delta are not safe either.
By making the Black Sea dangerous for commercial shipping, Russia:
Higher insurance costs, damaged ports and disrupted shipping make it harder and more expensive to export grain. Farmers struggle to sell their harvests at a fair price, while international buyers face delays and less predictable supplies.
Russia has not yet caused a global food crisis, but it is creating the conditions for exactly that.
The international community has repeatedly defended freedom of navigation. Yet the Black Sea still lacks a comparable international framework to protect civilian shipping.
The Kremlin has long sought to control the Black Sea - seizing Crimea, stealing the Azov Sea, and now making the part, if not the whole, Black Sea extremely dangerous for trade and civilian navigation.
As long as attacks on civilian shipping bring no meaningful consequences and commercial vessels remain exposed, Russia has little reason to change its approach.
This sends a dangerous signal far beyond the Black Sea.
It tells other potential aggressors that they can threaten international shipping, use trade routes as leverage and put civilian crews at risk, while the international response may go no further than condemnation.
The Black Sea must not become a place where Russia decides who can trade, what can be shipped and at what cost. Protecting Ukraine's maritime corridor means protecting seafarers, farmers and consumers far beyond its shores.
It also means defending a basic principle: international trade must not be held hostage by military force.
